The sub-prime meltdown actually began in December 2006, when lenders did away with stated 100% investor loans and it has gone much, much further since then.

Estimated losses due to foreclosure of Adjustable Rate Mortgages actually adjusting this year and next year are in the billions, if not trillions, and lenders are responding by removing products from their portfolios.

Like anything else, the mortgage market is driven by supply and demand, and the supply actually comes from Wall Street Banks who are willing to buy closed loans from Mortgage Lenders.  Previously, Wall Street had a seemingly insatiable appetite for sub-prime loans, “alt A” loans, and jumbo loans. (The press has combined everything that isn’t “A Paper” into the heading sub-prime, when actually sub-prime loans are loans with substandard credit, not non-conforming agency loans.)

Alt A Loans are loans that are A Paper loans, but with alternative documentation – stated income, stated asset, no doc, etc and therefore don’t meet Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ‘s conforming loan underwriting standards.

And obviously Jumbos, Super Jumbos and Mega Jumbos could be prime, sub-prime or alt a loans, as far as the credit rating is concerned, and the documentation likewise could be any level.

The press and Capital Hill with their multiple legislation attempts have all lumped together any loan that is not fully documented, conventional loan limits and a plain vanilla 30 year fixed rate into the now hated “sub-prime” category.  Neither the press nor the legislators have the time or inclination to learn the vagaries of the mortgage business and do their jobs “on the fly” as it were, and so, there is bad information and misinformation flying everywhere.

With the losses Wall Street Banks are experiencing in foreclosures of all kinds, they’ve lost their appetite for anything other than strictly “A Paper” loans. They aren’t buying much, and so, the supply of money for mortgages has gone to an historical low.

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Stated owner occupied loans for purchases and refinances are topped at 90% LTV; stated investor loans for purchases and refinances are also topped at 90%, and credit score requirements s for everything have gone up to levels previously regarded as pristine. That is, of course if your home is not a multi-million dollar purchase or refinance and then you are really looking at 65% to 70% max.

Estimates for the duration of this dearth of funds range from six months to two years. With the programs available for refinances, and talked about to become available for refinances, to the rational mind, it seems that this shouldn’t last forever. The strange thing is that borrowers who are in trouble don’t seem to be trying to do anything about their foreclosures because the numbers just keep getting larger every month.

FHA Secure for instance will allow a refinance of a mortgage already in default, with no regard for the late payments if they occurred after the loan’s interest rate adjusted.

The FHA is, in my opinion, the sub-prime loan of choice – the rates are as good as, conventional interest rates, and when that is combined with the fact that they IGNORE late payments, I would think people would be clamoring for those loans.

Additionally, if the value of a house has gone down during this market turbulence, and the property was originally bought with a first and a second, they will allow the second to stay, even if the LTV goes over 100%.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are considering raising conforming loan limits above the $417,000 maximum presently allowed in order to assist borrowers in California (where less than $417K doesn’t get you much of a home).  While this was regarded as a probability earlier on, it seems to have lost steam lately.

And finally, there is the possibility of a work out arrangement with the lender to whom one is late. While it may not be the perfect arrangement because at this point in time the fees allowable on forbearance workarounds are still very high, there is legislation pending that will limit the amount mortgage companies can actually charge for late fees, payoffs, forbearance, etc.

If you’re buying one of those million dollar bargains, be prepared to appear at the closing table with big bucks.  If you’re interested in refinancing your ARM, Get BUSY.  Opportunities abound, and the country is going to be in trouble if they aren’t refinanced.

For those with money invested in marketable securities, there is a golden opportunity to cash-in on the tremendous RE investment opportunities now available.  Today, there are multiple commercial & residential RE properties available for about 30% to 50% of what they were only two years ago.

For example, CEOs, CFOs or COOs, with large publically traded companies, who have large blocks of Corporate stock or other marketable securities can leverage those assets to take advantage of investment opportunities.  If you are a forward-thinking investor who wants to retain the future ownership of your assets as well as leverage the present value of your securities for immediate cash needs, this can be a terrific program.

These loans are –

·         Simple & Quick – NO Credit Check / NO Income Verification

NO Upfront Fees / NO Closing Costs / NO Personal Guarantee

·         Loans are “Non-Purpose” – loan can be used for virtually anything borrower wants to accomplish (personal or business)

·         Loans are “Non-Recourse” – giving the borrower the opportunity to simply “walk away” if the collateral falls below a set floor amount

·         High Loan-to-Values – up to 80% LTV (depending upon security); which is much higher than banks and brokerage companies can offer

·         Loans are Interest Only – principal payment at maturity; otherwise loans can be refinanced or extended

·         Low Fixed Interest Rates – usually between 2% to 4%

·         Loan Term – minimum of 3 yrs; also 5 yr / 7 yr / 10 yrs

·         Quick Funded – usually within 5 to 7 business days

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It is generally accepted that the high-end real estate is feeling the brunt of the credit crisis right now. Given the higher unemployment, the uncertainty about the future of expensive properties, and the loss of a liquid jumbo lending market across the nation, I have yet to see any analysts bullish on properties worth more than $1 million. The “lower” end properties, however, are benefiting from low interest rates, renewed attention from mortgage investors and the US government, and demand for foreclosure sales. Interesting times…

What happened Monday in the markets? Well, after an ugly Friday afternoon, fixed income securities came roaring back with prices improving and rates inching lower. Most investors had intra-day price improvements. Locks and originations are down somewhat, which helps, The Fed was in doing their usual buy-back of securities, and the stock market losing a little steam didn’t hurt bonds either. For mortgage-backed securities, a 4.5% coupon security (which would contain 4.75-5.125% mortgages) is priced at about a .5 discount. But by the time an investor adds their servicing released premium of 1-2 points, suddenly the secondary market is paying .5-1.5 over par for these loans. There is still profit in originations!

We have the 2-yr auction today. Who will pony up to buy a piece of the $42 billion and earn about 1.02% for two years? We’ll see, but many expect it to go well. Ben Bernanke has been nominated by Obama for a second term as Federal Reserve Chief, which is helping to calm markets. We will also have the S&P/Case Shiller Index, and at 7AM PST we’ll have the Consumer Confidence numbers. Mortgage prices are roughly unchanged from Monday afternoon, and the 10-yr is chopping around 3.50%.

As noted above, Bernanke has been nominated for a second term. His nomination for a second four-year term, which would start in late January, requires Senate approval and was endorsed by the head of the Banking Committee, Christopher Dodd. So don’t look for too many surprises during the process.

Do you remember how there was a public opinion period for the HVCC, which passed, and then when HVCC was put in place everyone was upset? Well, apparently the Fed is addressing how mortgage loan officers are paid. Given that a loan originator or mortgage broker is any person who for compensation or other monetary gain arranges, negotiates, or otherwise obtains an extension of consumer credit for another person; you’ll have to check out the website below. I don’t have the attention span to go through the entire document, but it doesn’t look good!

Bank of America has agreed to pay $150 million to settle a lawsuit alleging Merrill Lynch executives mislead investors about the bank’s condition. The suit targeted a number of Merrill Lynch executives and board members, including the former CEO. We all remember that Bank of America formally acquired Merrill Lynch at the start of the year after agreeing to buy the struggling investment bank last fall.

In news that surprised no one, Taylor, Bean & Whitaker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and said it may liquidate, three weeks after it closed its mortgage lending business. TBW said it plans to operate on a scaled-down basis as it works to recover, restructure and possibly liquidate its assets is not an easy task with more than $1 billion of both assets and liabilities, and between 1,000 and 5,000 creditors.

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